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Documentation Index

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Validate new product concepts through low-effort, low-cost experiments that measure real behavior rather than stated interest.

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Tools Required

This skill runs using CORE memory only. No integrations required.

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Step 1: Develop Your XYZ Hypothesis

Formulate a testable prediction in this format: “At least [X]% of [specific target market segment] will [specific action: sign up, pre-order, watch video, etc.]” This creates measurable success criteria before you run any experiments. Make your target market and success metric concrete and observable.

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Step 2: Design Pretotype Experiments

Select 2-3 lightweight validation methods suited to your hypothesis:
  • Landing page: Describe the core value and measure sign-up conversion rate
  • Explainer video: Show the concept and track view completion and share rates
  • Email campaign: Pitch the idea to your network and measure click-through or reply rates
  • Pre-order waitlist: Offer early access or a pre-order price and measure commitment level
  • Manual service delivery: Deliver the core value by hand to validate you’re solving a real job
  • Competitive alternative: Survey whether users prefer your concept over existing solutions

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Step 3: Apply Key Principles

  • Skin in the game: Prioritize experiments requiring real commitment (money, time, reputation) over passive interest signals. Pre-orders reveal willingness to pay better than surveys.
  • Your own data: Generate firsthand experimental evidence rather than relying on market reports or third-party analogies
  • Observable behavior: Focus on what users actually do, not what they say they would do

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Step 4: Specify Experiment Details

For each test, document:
  • The hypothesis being validated
  • Experimental method and user journey
  • Measurable metric and success threshold
  • Timeline and resource requirements

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Output Format

New Product Validation Plan 📊 Core Hypothesis At least [X]% of [target segment] will [specific action] within [timeframe] Experiments Experiment 1: [Name]
  • Method: [Landing page / Video / Email / Waitlist / Manual service]
  • Target audience: [Who you will reach]
  • User journey: [How they interact with the test]
  • Success metric: [Conversion rate, completion rate, sign-up rate, etc.]
  • Success threshold: [Minimum % that validates the hypothesis]
  • Timeline: [Days to run the experiment]
Experiment 2: [Name] [Same structure] Experiment 3: [Name] [Same structure] 🎯 Results & Learning
  • Hypothesis validated: [Yes/No]
  • Key learnings: [What you discovered about market demand]
  • Next step: [Pivot, continue, or kill the idea]

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Edge Cases

  • Vanity metrics: High landing page traffic doesn’t equal market demand if sign-up rate is low. Track conversion, not just views.
  • Artificial scarcity bias: Limited-time offers inflate interest. Measure sustained commitment, not just initial rush.
  • Self-selection bias: People who respond to your email are not representative of the broader market. Diversify outreach channels.
  • Founder effect: Friends and network respondents show higher engagement than cold market. Expect lower real-world conversion.
  • Product-solution fit: Confirming market interest in a problem doesn’t guarantee your proposed solution is the right approach. Plan follow-up validation.